10-11-10:Econometric Institute Current Indicator of the Economy to be published on EUCLID The Econometric Institute Current Indicator of the Economy (EICIE) is a real-time indicator for quarterly growth of the Dutch real Gross Domestic Product. The EICIE is published in the Dutch two-weekly journal Economisch Statistische Berichten (ESB). As per today, the EICIE will also appear on EUCLID, shortly after publication in ESB.
20-09-10:NBER's date of the recent trough in the US economy exactly in line with EUCLID's recession probabilities The business cycle dating committee of the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) has determined today that a trough in business activity occurred in the U.S. economy in June 2009. This statement is exactly in line with EUCLID's Recession Probabilities for the US Economy. The recession probabilities signaled the end of the US recession first in July 2009. The date on which the trough occurred was then estimated to be May 2009. One month later this estimate was revised to June 2009. The estimate remained constant ever since.
20-09-10:The new EUCLID website is online
Today we launched the new EUCLID website. On the EUCLID platform, we continue to monitor the Dutch economy through our panel of Dutch econometricians. The new website allows us to automatically summarize and publish our survey results. On the website you will also find our 'Real-Time Recession Probabilities for the US Economy', based on the model in Paap et al. (2009). In the coming months we aim to start new expert panels and indicators. If you wish to be informed about the EUCLID project and its panels and indicators in the future, please subscribe to our e-news letter. If you are a researcher and you wish to start an expert panel or publish your (macro-economic) forecasts for academic purposes, please do not hesitate to contact me.
01-04-10: I presented the first results of my new paper, 'Evaluating the Consistency and Timeliness of Leading Indicators', jointly written with Dick van Dijk and Richard Paap, at the
VVS-OR dag 2010, Vereniging voor Statistiek en Operationele Research, Amsterdam
27-01-10: I presented an overview of my work on business cycles analysis at the Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis, The Hague.
