Dennis Fok

Professor of Econometrics and Data Science

Latest News

My paper with Luuk van Maasakkers and Bas Donkers has been accepted by Expert Systems with Applications (see under Publications).
Our post-academic education on "Data Science & Business Analytics" (in Dutch) started again. This programme allows starting and more advanced business analysts to gain more insights from data, to discover new business opportunities, and to make decisions grounded in analytics. This programme is a full year programme, with meetings every Friday. A new round will start in September 2023.
The Econometric Institute has moved to the E-building, my office is now in room ET-35.
A new book, edited by Peter Leeflang, Jaap Wieringa, Tammo Bijmolt and Koen Pauwels on Avanced Methods for Modeling Markets came out at Springer. This book contains discussions on many methods, includes a discussion by me on Advanced Individual Demand Models.
With a team of lectures we have produced a Massive Open Online Course (MOOC) on Econometrics: Methods and Applications. This MOOC is available on Coursera.
This MOOC has also won the Erasmus School of Economics "Top lecturer Award 2015"
(Old news:) Friday, October 4, 2013, I gave my inaugural address as endowed Professor of Applied Econometrics entitled "Stay Ahead of Competition". (appointment announcement)

Personal Data

Full name: Dennis Fok

Title: Prof. dr.

Affiliation: Econometric Institute, Faculty of Economics, Erasmus University Rotterdam

Address: P.O. Box 1738, 3000 DR Rotterdam, The Netherlands

Office: ET-35

Phone: (+31) 10 - 408 1333

Fax: (+31) 10 - 408 9162

Email: dfok -at- ese.eur.nl

Office hours: 9:00-17:00

CV: download in pdf-format

Research

Research interests

Applied econometrics in general, in particular the combination of econometrics and marketing, this includes modeling decisions at the level of the individual as well as at the aggregate level.

Models and techniques that are applicable to (large-scale) problems in economics/business in which individual-level inference is needed (eg.\ modeling online decision-making by individuals).

Technical research interests: the development and application of new models and techniques, examples are non-linear panels, simulation methods (Bayesian models as well as simulated maximum likelihood) and dynamic models.

Information on publications and working papers on these topics can be found below.

Based on my publication record I'm a member of the Erasmus Research Institute of Management and a research fellow of the Tinbergen Institute.

PhD students

Currently I am (co-)supervising the following PhD students:

Markus Mueller(planned date of defense 2026)
Hong Deng on Contextual bandit algorithms for recommender system (planned date of defense 2024)
Luuk van Maasakkers on Marketing Modeling for Large-scale Assortments (planned date of defense 2024)

In the past I have (co-)supervised:

Anoek Castelein on Models for Individual Responses: Explaining and predicting individual behavior (date of defense March 2021)
Wei Li on Competition in the Retail Market of Consumer Packaged Goods (date of defense Jan 2021)
Bruno Jacobs on Marketing Analytics for High-Dimensional Assortments (date of defense December 2017)
Aiste Ruseckaite on New Flexible Models and Design Construction Algorithms for Mixtures and Binary Dependent Variables (date of defense January 2017)
Evsen Korkmaz on Bridging Models and Business: Understanding Heterogeneity in hidden drivers of customer purchase behavior (date of defense September 2014)
Tim Salimans on Essays in Likelihood-Based Computational Econometrics (date of defense May 2013)
Yuri Peers on Econometric Advances in Diffusion Models (date of defense December 2011)
Carlos Hernández-Mireles on Marketing Modeling for New Products (date of defense June 2010)

Companies & Consulting

Student vacancies/internships

Companies are invited to contact me for vacancies or internships for students in the master programme Business Analytics & Quantitative Marketing. Many students in this programme combine their master thesis with an internship. During their thesis work they tackle relevant data-related questions for various companies. Please send me a description of the context and research question of about one page. The best time for recruiting students for these positions is November to February.

Consulting

The Econometric Institute has set up a company to assist companies with data science related questions and companies: Erasmus Quantitative Intelligence (EQI). Faculty of the institute actively participate in the research projects of EQI.

Research collaboration

In many of my research projects I actively cooperate with companies. Companies with challenging research questions and a taste for academic research are invited to contact me to discuss the possibilities for cooperation.

Executive education

See under courses.

Publications

van Maasakkers, L., D. Fok, B. Donkers, 2022, "Next-basket prediction in a high-dimensional setting using gated recurrent units" Expert Systems with Applications, forthcoming
Download from ESWA

Jacobs, B., D. Fok, B. Donkers, 2021, "Understanding Large-Scale Dynamic Purchase Behavior" Marketing Science, 40(2), pp 844-870
Download from Marketing Science, or see the working paper version

Dorotic, M., D. Fok, P.C. Verhoef, and T.H.A. Bijmolt, 2021, "Synergistic and cannibalization effects in a partnership loyalty program" Journal of the Academy of Marketing Science, 49, pp 1021-1042
Download from JAMS, or here

Ruseckaite, A., D. Fok, and P.P. Goos, 2020, "Flexible Mixture-Amount Models Using Multivariate Gaussian Processes" Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, 38(2), pp. 257-271
Download from JBES

Fok, D., A. van der Stel, A. Burke, and R. Thurik, 2019, "How entry crowds and grows markets: the gradual disaster management view of market dynamics in the retail industry" Annals of Operations Research, 283, pp. 1111-1138
Download from Annals of OR, or here

Bel, K, D. Fok, and R. Paap, 2018, "Parameter Estimation in Multivariate Logit Models with Many Binary Choices", Econometric Reviews,
Download from ER, Working paper version

D. Fok, 2017, "Advanced Individual Demand Models" In P.S.H Leeflang, J.E. Wieringa, T.H.A. Bijmolt, & K.H. Pauwels (Eds.), Advanced Methods for Modeling Markets (International Series in Quantitative Marketing), 31-86, Switzerland: Springer
Link to Springer

Ruseckaite, A, P.P. Goos, and D. Fok, 2017, "Bayesian D-optimal choice designs for mixtures", Journal of the Royal Statistical Society: Series C (Applied Statistics), 66 (2), 363-386
Download from JRSS-C

Jacobs, B, B. Donkers, and D. Fok, 2016, "Model-based Purchase Predictions for Large Assortments", Marketing Science, 35(3), 389-404
Download from Marketing Science, or Working paper version

Dorotic, M., P.C. Verhoef, D. Fok, and T.H.A. Bijmolt, 2014, "Reward redemption effects in a loyalty program when customers choose how much and when to redeem'', International Journal of Research in Marketing, 31 (4), pp 339-355
Download from IJRM

de Palma, A., M. Abdellaoui, G. Attanasi, M. Ben-Akiva, I. Erev, H. Fehr-Duda, D. Fok, C.R. Fox, R. Hertwig, N. Picard, P.P. Wakker, J.L. Walker, and M. Weber, 2014, "Beware of black swans: Taking stock of the description-experience gap in decision under uncertainty'', Marketing Letters, 25 (3), pp. 269-280
Download from Marketing Letters

Fok, D., and R. Paap, and P.H. Franses, 2014, "Incorporating Responsiveness to Marketing Efforts in Brand Choice Modeling", Econometrics, 2, pp. 20-44
Download from Econometrics

Fok, D., and P.H. Franses, 2013, "Testing Earnings Management", Statistica Neerlandica, 67 (3), pp 281 - 292|
Download from Statistica Neerlandica

Horváth, Cs., and D. Fok, 2013, "Moderating Factors of Immediate, Gross, and Net Cross-brand Effects of Price Promotions", Marketing Science, 32 (1), pp 127 - 152
Download from Marketing Science
Peers, Y., Fok, D., and P.H. Franses, 2012, "Modeling Seasonality in New Product Diffusion'',
Marketing Science, 31 (2), pp 351 - 364
Download from Marketing Science

Fok, D., R. Paap, and B. van Dijk, 2012, "A Rank-Ordered Logit Model with Unobserved Heterogeneity in Ranking Capabilities'',
Journal of Applied Econometrics, 27 (5), pp. 831-846
(previous version available in Econometric Institute Reports, EI-2007-7, Erasmus University Rotterdam)
Download from JAE

Fok, D., R. Paap, and P.H. Franses, 2012, "Modeling Dynamic Effects of Promotion on Interpurchase Times'',
Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, 56(11), pp. 3055-3069
(previous version available in ERIM Report Series Research in Management, ERS-2003-44-MKT, Erasmus University Rotterdam)
Download from Science Direct

Dorotic, M., D. Fok, P.C. Verhoef, and T.H.A. Bijmolt, 2011, "Do Vendors Benefit From Promotions in a Multi-Vendor Loyalty Program?'',
Marketing Letters, 22, pp. 341-356
(previous version available as SOM Working Paper, University of Groningen)
Download from Marketing Letters

van Everdingen, Y., D. Fok, and S. Stremersch, 2009, "Modeling Global Spill-Over of New Product Takeoff",
Journal of Marketing Research, 46(5), pp. 637--652
(also available in ERIM Report Series Research in Management, ERS-2008-067-MKT, Erasmus University Rotterdam)
Download from JMR

Fok, D., and R. Paap, 2009, "Modeling Category-Level Purchase Timing with Brand-level Marketing Variables",
Journal of Applied Econometrics, 24, pp. 469--489
also available in Econometric Institute Reports, EI-2003-15, Erasmus University Rotterdam
Download from JAE

van Nierop, J.E.M., D. Fok, and P.H. Franses, 2008, "Interaction between shelf layout and marketing effectiveness and its impact on optimizing shelf arrangements",
Marketing Science, 27(6), pp. 1065--1082
(previous version available in ERIM Report Series Research in Management, ERS-2006-13-MKT, Erasmus University Rotterdam)
Download from Marketing Science

Fok, D., P.H. Franses, and R. Paap, 2007, "Seasonality and Non-linear Price Effects in Scanner-data based Market-response Models",
Journal of Econometrics, 138, pp. 231-251
(previous version available in Econometric Institute Reports, EI-2005-45
Download from JE

Fok, D. and P.H. Franses, 2007, "Modeling the Diffusion of Scientific Publications",
Journal of Econometrics, 139 (2), 376-390,
(also available as Econometric Institute Report 2005-48)
Download from JE

Sloot, L.M., D. Fok, and P.C. Verhoef, 2006, "The Short- and Long-Term Impact of an Assortment Reduction on Category Sales",
Journal of Marketing Research, 43 (4), pp. 536 - 548
(also appeared as MSI Working paper Report No .06-106, Boston)
Download from JMR

Fok, D., Cs. Horv\E1th, R. Paap, and P.H. Franses, 2006, "A Hierarchical Bayes Error Correction Model to Explain Dynamic Effects of Price Changes",
Journal of Marketing Research, 43(3), pp. 443 - 461
(previous version available as ERIM Report Series Research in Management, ERS-2005-047-MKT)
Download from JMR

Fok, D., D. van Dijk and P.H. Franses, 2005, "Forecasting Aggregates using Panels of Nonlinear Time Series",
International Journal of Forecasting, 21(4), pp 785 - 794
(also available as Econometric Institute Reports, EI-2004-44)
Download from IJF

van Everdingen, Y., W.B. Aghina, and D. Fok, 2005. "Forecasting cross-population innovation diffusion: A Bayesian approach",
International Journal of Research in Marketing, 22 (3), pp. 293-308
Download from IJRM

Fok, D., D. van Dijk, and P.H. Franses, 2005, "A Multi-Level Panel STAR model for US Manufacturing Sectors",
Journal of Applied Econometrics, 20 (6), pp. 811 - 827
Download from JAE

Fok. D. and P.H. Franses, 2004, "Analyzing the Effects of a Brand Introduction on Competitive Structure using a Market Share Attraction Model",
International Journal of Research in Marketing, 21 (2), pp. 159 - 177
Download from IJRM

Fok, D. and P.H. Franses, 2002, "Ordered Logit Analysis For Selectively Sampled Data",
Computational Statistics and Data Analysis, 40 (3), pp. 477 - 497
Download from COMSTA

Fok, D. and P.H. Franses, 2001, "Forecasting Market Shares from Models for Sales",
International Journal of Forecasting, 17 (1) pp. 121-128
Download from IJF

Book contributions

Fok, D., P.H. Franses and R. Paap, 2006, Performance of Seasonal Adjustment Procedures: Simulation and Empirical Analysis, Palgrave Handbook of Econometrics, vol. 1 (Econometric Theory) by T.C. Mills & K. Patterson, Palgrave MacMillan, pp 1035 - 1055, (available as Econometric Institute Report 2005-30 , download pdf).

Fok, D., P.H. Franses and R. Paap, 2002, "Econometric Analysis of the Market Share Attraction Model'',
in P.H. Franses and A.L. Montgomery (eds.), "Advances in Econometrics", vol. 16, "Econometric Models in Marketing", Chapter 10, pp 223-256, Elsevier Science, Ltd.

Books

Fok, D., 2003, "Advanced Econometric Marketing Models", ERIM PhD Series in Management, 27, 189 pages
Download pdf
(You can also download the "Lekenpraatje" and the corresponding Presentation, both in Dutch)

Proceedings

Fok, D., P.H. Franses and R. Paap, 2000, "Forecasting Market Shares from Attraction Models: Some First Simulation Results", Proceedings of the 29th EMAC Conference, May 2000, Rotterdam.

Working papers

Fok, D. and R. Paap, 2019, "New Misspecification Tests for Multinomial Logit Models",
Econometric Institute Research Papers, EI2019-24, Erasmus University Rotterdam

Jacobs, B., B. Donkers, and D. Fok, 2016, "Model-based Purchase Predictions for Large Assortments",
ERIM Report Series Research in Management, ERS-2014-007-MKT, Erasmus University Rotterdam

Korkmaz, E., D. Fok, and R. Kuik, 2014, "The Need for Market Segmentation in Buy-Till-You-Defect Models'',
ERIM Report Series Research in Management, ERS-2014-006-LIS, Erasmus University Rotterdam

Ruseckaite, A., P. Goos, and D. Fok, 2014, "Bayesian D-Optimal Choice Designs for Mixtures'',
Tinbergen Institute Working Paper, 14-057/III, Erasmus University Rotterdam

Korkmaz, E., R. Kuik, and D. Fok, 2013, " "Counting Your Customers": When will they buy next? An empirical validation of probabilistic customer base analysis models based on purchase timing'',
ERIM Report Series Research in Management, ERS-2013-001-LIS, Erasmus University Rotterdam

Peers, Y., D. Fok, and P.H. Franses, 2010, "Modeling Seasonality in New Product Diffusion"
ERIM Report Series Research in Management, ERS-2010-07-15-MKT, Erasmus University Rotterdam

Hern\E1ndez-Mireles, C., and D. Fok, "Random Coefficient Logit Model for Large Datasets"
ERIM Report Series Research in Management, ERS-2010-05-31-MKT, Erasmus University Rotterdam

Fok, D., A. van Stel, Burke, A.E.,and Thurik, R., 2010, "Industry Dynamics and Entrepreneurship: An Equilibrium Model"
Tinbergen Institute Discussion Paper, 2010-012/3, Erasmus University Rotterdam
Download pdf

Fok, D., and P.H. Franses, 2009, "Testing Earnings Management"
Econometric Institute Reports, EI-2009-31

Fok, D., A. van Stel, Burke, A.E.,and Thurik, R., 2009, "The Dynamics of Entry and Exit"
Scales Research Reports, EIM Business and Policy Research

Horv\E1th, Cs., and D. Fok, 2008, "Moderating factors of immediate, dynamic, and long-run cross-price effects"
ERIM Report Series Research in Management, ERS-2008-42-MKT, Erasmus University Rotterdam

Hernandez-Mireles, C., D. Fok, and P.H. Franses, 2008, "Why, How and When Do Prices Land? Evidence from the videogame industry"
ERIM Report Series Research in Management, ERS-2008-44-MKT, Erasmus University Rotterdam

Fok, D., R. Paap, and P.H. Franses, 2008, "Incorporating Responsiveness to Marketing Efforts in Brand Choice Modeling"
Econometric Institute Reports EI-2008-15, Erasmus University Rotterdam

Boswijk, H.P., D. Fok and P.H. Franses, 2006, "A new multivariate product growth model",
Tinbergen Institute Discussion Paper, 06-027/4, Erasmus University Rotterdam
Download pdf

Fok, D., R. Paap and P.H. Franses, 2002, "Modeling Dynamic Effects of Promotion on Interpurchase Times",
Econometric Institute Reports EI-2002-37, Erasmus University Rotterdam
Download pdf

van Nierop, E., D. Fok and P.H. Franses, 2002, "Sales Models For Many Items Using Attribute Data"
ERIM Report Series Research in Management ERS-2002-65-MKT, Erasmus University Rotterdam
Download pdf

Fok, D., P.H. Franses and R. Paap, 2001, "Incorporating Responsiveness to Marketing Efforts when Modeling Brand Choice"
ERIM Report Series Research in Management ERS-2001-47-MKT, Erasmus University Rotterdam
Download pdf

Fok, D., P.H. Franses, 1999, "Impulse-Response Analysis of the Market Share Attraction Model"
Econometric Institute Report EI-9955/A, Erasmus University Rotterdam
Download pdf

Non-refereed papers (trade journals)

Sloot, L,. D. Fok, and P. Verhoef, 2006, "Assortment Unavailability: The Impact of Assortment Reduction on Consumer Behaviour", Elsevier Food International: Executive Outlook 6 (2), pp.8 - 16

Presentations at conferences

"Model based project discovery",
Marketing Dynamics, 2016, Hamburg

"Proactive Churn Managment",
Marketing Science, 2012, Boston

"Estimating and Explaining Immediate, Dynamic, and Long-run Cross-Price Effects",
Marketing Science, 2009, Ann-Arbor, USA

"Interaction between shelf layout and marketing effectiveness and its impact on optimizing shelf arrangements",
GFA Conference, 2007, Cergy-Pontoise, France

"A Rank-Ordered Logit Model with Unobserved Heterogeneity in Ranking Capabilities",
European Meeting of the Econometric Society 2007, Budapest, Hungary

Cross-Country Effects of New Product Takeoff",
Marketing Science, 2007, Singapore
"A Multi-Level Panel Smooth Transition Autoregression for US Sectoral Production'',
Australasian Meeting of the Econometric Society, 2004, Melbourne, Australia and
Econometric Society Winter Meeting, 2004, Stockholm, Sweden

"A HB-ECM to Explain the Long-run and Short-run Effects of Promotions on Sales",
Marketing Science, 2004, Rotterdam, Netherlands

"Forecasting Aggregate Output using a Nonlinear Multi-level Model for Disaggregate Data",
Annual Research Seminar of the Netherlands Econometrics Study Group, 2004, Rotterdam, Netherlands

"Modeling Long-Run Price Elasticities on Market Shares"
Marketing Science, 2003, Maryland

"A Panel Smooth Transistion Autoregression for US Sectoral Production"
Tinbergen week, 2003, Rotterdam, Netherlands

"Estimating Dynamic Effects of Promotion on Interpurchase Time",
European Meeting of the Econometric Society 2002, Venice, Italy

"Modeling Dynamic Effects of Promotion on Interpurchase Times",
ESEM 2002, Venice, Italy (download paper)
Marketing Science 2002, Edmonton, Canada

"Modeling Responsiveness to Marketing Efforts",
Marketing Science 2001, Wiesbaden, Germany

"Estimating the Effects of a Brand Introduction on Competitive Structure using a Market Share Attraction Model",
A/R/T Forum 2001, Amelia Island, USA (Poster presentation)
Download poster

"Impulse-Response Analysis of the Market Share Attraction Model",
Marketing Science 2000, Los Angeles, USA

"Forecasting Market Shares from Attraction Models: Some First Simulation Results",
EMAC 2000, Rotterdam, Netherlands

Management

Currently

Director of Econometric Institute (Department of Econometrics), Erasmus School of Economics
Academic Director of Master Business Analytics and Quantitative Marketing

One of the specializations in the master Econometrics and Management Science at Erasmus University. This programme specializes in (predictive) modeling in the context of marketing and businesses in general.
Coordinator (joint with Philip Hans Franses) of Econometric Institute Lectures on Econometrics in cooperation with Princeton University Press (see the related series of books)

Previously

Director Transformation Educational Programme at the Tinbergen Institute (TI)

TI is the graduate school and research institute operated jointly by the School of Economics and Econometrics of Erasmus University Rotterdam (EUR), University of Amsterdam (UvA) and VU University Amsterdam (VU). TI is one of the major economic research institutes in the Netherlands.
Associate Director of ERIM

Consistently ranked in the top three of management research centres in Europe, the Erasmus Research Institute of Management (ERIM) is a community of over 300 management scientists who publish in leading academic journals. For aspiring researchers, ERIM offers an advanced doctoral programme in business and management.
Co-director of "Erasmus Center for Data Science and Business Analytics"

The Erasmus Center for Data Science and Business Analytics supports organizations in turning data into business solutions. The center brings together researchers from the Erasmus School of Economics and Rotterdam School of Management

Courses

Bachelor specialization Business Analytics and Quantitative Marketing

Seminar in Business Analytics and Quantitative Marketing

Bachelor thesis supervision

Master Business Analytics and Quantitative Marketing

Advanced Marketing Models
Seminar Case Studies in Business Analytics and Quantitative Marketing
Master theses supervision

Tinbergen Institute MPhil/PhD course

Econometrics I

Executive/post-experience

Advanced technologies for data analysis in the "Leadership Challenges with Big Data" programme (Erasmus Center for Data Science and Business Analytics)
Statistics for Data Science in the "Data & Business Analytics" programme
Advanced Modeling in the MiAcademy programme

Open programmes

Massive Open Online Course "Econometrics : Methods and Applications" through Coursera.

Full name:	Dennis Fok
Title:	Prof. dr.
Affiliation:	Econometric Institute, Faculty of Economics, Erasmus University Rotterdam
Address:	P.O. Box 1738, 3000 DR Rotterdam, The Netherlands
Office:	ET-35
Phone:	(+31) 10 - 408 1333
Fax:	(+31) 10 - 408 9162
Email:	dfok -at- ese.eur.nl
Office hours:	9:00-17:00
CV:	download in pdf-format

Erasmus School of Economics