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Publications Richard Paap

International Journals

• Wang, W., X. Zhang, & R. Paap, 2019, To Pool or Not to Pool: What Is a Good Strategy for Parameter Estimation and Forecasting in Panel Regressions?, Journal of Applied Econometrics, to appear.
• Nibbering, D., R. Paap &, M. van der Wel, 2018, What do Professional Forecasters actually predict?, International Journal of Forecasting, 34, 288-311.
• Bel, K., D. Fok & R. Paap, 2018, Parameter Estimation in Multivariate Logit models with Many Binary Choices, Econometric Reviews, 37, 534-550
• Franses, P.H., R. Legerstee & R. Paap, 2017, Estimating Loss Functions of Experts, Applied Economics, 49, 386-396.
• Bel, K. & R. Paap, 2016, Modeling the Impact of Forecast-based Regime Switches on US Inflation, International Journal of Forecasting, 32, 1306-1316.
• Lourenco, C., E. Gijsbrechts & R. Paap, 2015, The Impact of Category Prices on Store Price Image Formation: An Empirical Analysis, Journal of Marketing Research, 52, 200-216.
• Fok, D., R. Paap & P.H. Franses, 2014, Incorporating Responsiveness to Marketing Efforts in Brand Choice Modeling, Econometrics, 2, 20-44.
• Cakmakli, C., R. Paap & D.J.C. van Dijk, 2013, Measuring and Predicting Heterogeneous Recessions, Journal of Economic Dynamics & Control, 37, 2195-2216.
• Van den Hauwe, S., R. Paap, & D.J.C. van Dijk, 2013, Bayesian Forecasting of Federal Funds Target Rate Decisions, Journal of Macroeconomics, 37, 19-40.
• Groen, J.J.J., R. Paap & F. Ravazzolo, 2013, Real-time Inflation Forecasting in a Changing World, Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, 31, 29-44
• Paap, R. & P.H. Franses, 2013, Common Large Innovations Across Nonlinear Time Series, Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, 17, 251-263.
• Horváth, Cs. & R. Paap, 2012, The Effect of Recessions on Gambling Expenditures, Journal of Gambling Studies, 28, 703-717.
• Fidrmuc, J.P., P. Roosenboom, R. Paap & T. Teunissen, 2012, One Size does not fit all: Selling Firms to Private Equity versus Strategic Acquirers, Journal of Corporate Finance, 18, 828-848.
• Fok D., R. Paap & B. Van Dijk, 2012, A Rank-ordered Logit Model with Unobserved Heterogeneity in Ranking Capabilities, Journal of Applied Econometrics, 27, 831-846.
• Basturk, N., R. Paap &. D.J.C. van Dijk, 2012, Structural Differences in Economic Growth, Applied Economics, 44, 119-134.
• Fok, D., R. Paap & P.H. Franses, 2012, Modeling Dynamic Effects of Promotion on Interpurchase Times, Computational Statistics and Data Analysis, 56, 3055-3069.
• Van Dijk, B., P.H. Franses, R. Paap, & D.J.C. van Dijk, 2011, Modeling Regional House Prices, Applied Economics, 43, 2097-2110
• Franses, P.H. & R. Paap, 2011, Random-Coefficient Periodic Autoregressions, Statistica Neerlandica, 65, 1-15.
• Horváth, Cs., A. Günther, A. & R. Paap, 2010, Seasonal Patterns in Slot-Machine Gambling in Germany, International Gambling Studies, 10, 255-268.
• Van Nierop, E., B. Bronnenberg, R. Paap, M. Wedel &  P.H. Franses, 2010, Retrieving Unobserved Consideration Sets from Household Panel Data, Journal of Marketing Research, 47, 63-74.
• Paap, R., Segers, R. & D.J.C. van Dijk, 2009, Do Leading Indicators lead Peaks more than Troughs?, Journal of Business & Economics Statistics, 27, 528-543.
• De Boer, P. & R. Paap, 2009, Testing Non-nested Demand Relations: Linear Expenditure Systems versus Indirect Addilog, Statistica Neerlandica, 63, 368-384.
• Fok, D. & R. Paap, 2009, Modeling Category-level Purchase Timing with Brand-level Marketing Variables, Journal of Applied Econometrics, 24, 469-489.
• Chintaguta, P., P.H. Franses & R. Paap, 2009, Introduction to the Special Issue on New Econometric Models in Marketing, Journal of Applied Econometrics, 24, 375-376.
• Van Dijk, B. & R. Paap, 2008, Explaining Individual Response using Aggregated Data, Journal of Econometrics, 146, 1-9.
• Franses, P.H., M. van der Leij & R. Paap, 2008, A Simple Test for GARCH against a Stochastic Volatility Model, Journal of Financial Econometrics, 6, 291-306.
• Brouwer, J., R. Paap & J-M. Viaene, 2008, The Trade and FDI Effects of EMU Enlargement, Journal of International Money and Finance, 27, 188-208.
• Fok, D., P.H. Franses & R. Paap, 2007, Seasonality and Non-linear Price Effects in Scanner-data based Market-response Models, Journal of Econometrics, 138, 231-251.
• Geweke, J.F., P.J.F. Groenen, R. Paap & H.K. van Dijk, 2007, Computational Techniques for Applied Econometric Analysis of Macroeconomic and Financial Time Processes (editorial introduction), Computational Statistics and Data Analysis, 51, 3506-3508.
• Bijwaard, G.E, P.H. Franses & R. Paap, 2006, Modeling Purchases as Repeated Events, Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, 24, 487-502
• Kleibergen, F. & R. Paap, 2006, Generalized Reduced Rank Tests using the Singular Value Decomposition, Journal of Econometrics, 133, 97-126.
• Fok, D., Cs. Horváth, R. Paap & P.H. Franses, 2006, A Hierarchical Bayes Error Correction Model to Explain Dynamic Effects of Price Changes, Journal of Marketing Research, 43, 443-461.
• Donkers, B., R. Paap, J.J Jonker & P.H. Franses, 2006, Deriving Target Selection Rules From Endogenously Selected Samples, Journal of Applied Econometrics, 21, 549-562.
• Paap, R., P.H. Franses & D. van Dijk, 2005, Does Africa grow slower than Asia, Latin America and the Middle East? Evidence from a New Data-based Classification Method, Journal of Development Economics, 77, 553-570.
• Paap, R., E. van Nierop, H.J. van Heerde, M. Wedel, P.H. Franses & K.J. Alsem, 2005, Consideration Sets, Intentions and the Inclusion of "Don't Know" in a Two-Stage Model for Voter Choice, International Journal of Forecasting, 21, 53-71.
• Franses, P.H., R. Paap & B. Vroomen, 2004, Forecasting Unemployment using an Autoregression with Censored Latent Effects Parameters, International Journal of Forecasting, 20, 255-271.
• Paap, R. & H.K. van Dijk, 2003, Bayes Estimates of Markov Trends in Possibly Cointegrated Series: An Application to US Consumption and Income, Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, 21, 547-563.
• Kippers, J., E. van Nierop, R. Paap & P.H. Franses, 2003, An Empirical Study of Cash Payments, Statistica Neerlandica, 57, 484-508.
• Franses, P.H., M. J. van der Leij & R. Paap, 2002, Modeling and Forecasting  Level Shifts in Absolute Returns, Journal of Applied Econometrics, 17, 601-616.
• Kleibergen, F. & R. Paap, 2002, Priors, Posteriors and Bayes factors for a Bayesian Analysis of Cointegration, Journal of Econometrics, 111, 223-249.
• van Dijk, D., P.H. Franses & R. Paap, 2002, A Nonlinear Long Memory Model for US Unemployment, Journal of Econometrics, 110, 135-165.
• Franses, P.H. & R. Paap, 2002, Censored Latent Effects Autoregression, with an Application to US Unemployment,  Journal of Applied Econometrics, 17, 347-366.
• Paap, R., 2002, What are the Advantages of MCMC Based Inference in Latent Variable Models?, Statistica Neerlandica, 56, 2-22..
• Paap, R. & P.H. Franses, 2000, A Dynamic Multinomial Probit Model for Brand Choice with Different Long-run and Short-run Effects of Marketing Mix Variables, Journal of Applied Econometrics, 15, 717-744.
• Franses, P.H. & R. Paap, 2000, Modeling Changing Day-of-the-week Seasonality in Stock Returns and Volatility, Applied Financial Economics, 10, 483-488.
• Paap, R. & H.K van Dijk, 1999, Posterior Evidence on the Permanent Income Hypothesis, Bulletin EU & US Inflation and Macroeconomics, 58, 48-52, University Carlos III, Madrid.
• Paap, R. & P.H. Franses, 1999, On Trends and Constants in Periodic Autoregressions, Econometric Reviews, 18, 271-286.
• Franses, P.H. & R. Paap, 1999, Does Seasonal Adjustment Change Inference from Markov Switching Models, Journal of Macroeconomics, 21, 79-92.
• Paap, R. & H.K van Dijk, 1998, Distribution and Mobility of Wealth of Nations,  European Economic Review, 42, 1269-1293.
• Paap, R., P.H. Franses & H. Hoek, 1997, Mean Shifts, Unit Roots and Forecasting Seasonal Time Series,  International Journal of Forecasting, 13, 355-378.
• Franses, P.H., H. Hoek & R. Paap, 1997, Bayesian Analysis of Seasonal Unit Roots and Seasonal Mean Shifts,  Journal of Econometrics, 78, 359-380.
• Franses, P.H. & R. Paap, 1996, Periodic Integration: Further Results on Model Selection and Forecasting, Statistical Papers, 37, 33-52.
• Franses, P.H. & R. Paap, 1995, Seasonality and Stochastic Trends in German Consumption and Income, 1960.1-1987.4, Empirical Economics, 20, 109-132.
• Franses, P.H. & R. Paap, 1995, Moving Average Filters and Periodic Integration, Mathematics and Computers in Simulation, 39, 245-249.
• Franses, P.H. & R.  Paap, 1994, Model Selection in Periodic Autoregressions, Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 56, 421-439.

Dutch Journals

• Kippers, J., P.H. Franses, E. van Nierop & R. Paap, 2002, Hoe Betalen We Eigenlijk?, Economisch Statistische Berichten, nr. 4385, 847-850.
• Paap, R., 2001, Modelleren van Scanner Panel Data, Medium Econometrische Toepassingen, vol. 9, nr 3, 12-15.
• Paap, R. 1995, Trends in Periodic Autoregressions, Tinbergen Institute Research Bulletin, vol. 7, 1-12.
• Gameren, E. van, D.E.G. Moolenaar & R. Paap, 1993, Evaluatie van Modelselectie met Voorspelcriteria, Kwantitatieve Methoden, nr. 44, 45-57.

Proceedings

• Kippers, J., E. van Nierop, R. Paap & P.H. Franses, 2001, Modeling Cash Payments, Proceedings of the Joint Statistical Meetings 2001, August 2001, Atlanta.
• Fok, D., P.H. Franses & R. Paap, 2000, Forecasting Market Shares from Attraction Models: Some First Simulation Results, Proceedings of the 29th EMAC Conference, May 2000, Rotterdam.
• Jonker, J.J.J, R. Paap & P.H. Franses, 2000, Are RFM Variables Useful for Predicting the Response to Charity Fund Direct Mailings?, Proceedings of the 29th EMAC Conference, May 2000, Rotterdam.

Books

• Franses, P.H. & R. Paap, 2004, Periodic Time Series Models, Oxford University Press, Oxford.
• Franses, P.H. & R. Paap, 2001, Quantitative Models in Marketing Research, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge 
• Paap, R., 1997, Markov Trends in Macroeconomic Time Series, PhD thesis, Tinbergen Institute Research Series, no. 171, Thesis Publishers, Amsterdam (full document (pdf file))

Book Contributions

• Ravazzolo, F., R. Paap, D.J.C. van Dijk and P.H. Franses, 2008, Bayesian Model Averaging in the Presence of Structural Breaks, in Forecasting in the Presence of Structural Breaks and Model Uncertainty - Frontiers of Economics and Globalization Series by D.E. Rapach & M. Wohar, Emerald, Chapter 15, 561-593.
• Paap, R. & H.K. van Dijk, Distribution and Mobility of Wealth of Nations, 2008, Modeling Income Distributions and Lorenz Curves Series: Economic Studies in Inequality, Social Exclusion and Well-Being, vol.  5, by D. Chotikapanich, Springer, Chapter 5, 71-94.
• Fok, D., Franses, P.H. & R. Paap, 2006, Performance of Seasonal Adjustment Procedures: Simulations and Empirical Results, in Palgrave Handbook of Econometrics, vol. 1, Econometric Theory by T.C. Mills & K. Patterson, Palgrave MacMillan, Chapter 29, 1035-1055.
• Franses, P.H. & R. Paap, 2002, Forecasting with Periodic Autoregressive Time Series Models,  in A Companion to Economic Forecasting by M.P. Clements & D.F. Hendry, Basil Blackwell, Oxford, Chapter 19, 432-452.
• Fok, D., P.H. Franses & R. Paap, 2002, Econometric Analysis of the Market Share Attraction Model, in Advances in Econometrics, vol. 16, Econometric Models in Marketing by P.H Franses & A.L. Montgomery, JAI Press, Amsterdam, Chapter 10, 223-256.

Book Reviews

• Paap, R., 2007, Contemporary Bayesian Econometrics and Statistics by John Geweke, Wiley, New Jersey, 2005, Hardcover, 300 pages, ISBN: 0-471-67932-1, International Journal of Forecasting, 23, 531.

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